Market Update


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Home sales in July (single family, townhouse & condo combined) were 4.9% lower than June, with a 4.6% fall in single family and a 7.5% fall in townhouse & condo sales.

Total sales were down 18.1% from July 2013 with single family down 18.7% and townhouse & condo sales down 13.3%. The gap between 2013 and 2014 sales closed opened wider than in June because July was an unusually strong month last year. Thanks to the price rises between July 2013 and July 2014, the drop in total dollars spent on homes was less severe than the drop in the unit count. • Total dollars spent on single family homes fell by 13.3% below July 2013. • Total dollars spent on townhouses & condos fell by 10.0% below July 2013. In the sections below we compare July 2014 data for Maricopa and Pinal County with that for July 2013. We analyze volumes and pricing for 8 different transaction types as well as the totals. Individual statistics are also provided in the attached tables by county and city. This report concentrates on single family homes but detailed statistics for townhouse/ condo properties are shown in the tables.

Demand

Demand has been much weaker since July 2013 and as yet shows little sign of recovery. Activity by first time home buyers has been stubbornly and unusually low and is not compensating for the loss in strong investor demand that had prevailed from 2009 until July last year. At the top end of the market sales of single family homes over $500,000 was flat compared with July 2013. Although flat this was much better than steep drop for price ranges below $500,000. Sales of single family homes below $150,000 fell 36%. This fall was partly caused by the lack of distressed supply, but mostly by the reduction in demand from investors. The market over $500,000 was weaker in July than in June but we still had a sales mix that was heavily biased towards higher end homes. In addition the market below $150,000 continued to contract. It is the relatively low volume of low-priced home sales that is causing the monthly median sales price as well as the increase in average price per sq. ft. There has been very little movement in the values of individual homes over the past 12 months. Luxury homes over $500,000 captured a 23% market share, up from 21% in July 2013. The lowest-priced homes under $150,000 fell from 14% to 10%. The mid range has increased its share of spending from 65% to 66%. Although supply has been declining for the last four months, it is still adequate to meet the current low level of demand. Market Summary – Beginning of September 2014 We are pleased to provide our clients with this Monthly Market Update. This report will provide you with the latest real estate trends. Our business is built around the concept of educating and providing the personal service that Real Estate Agents and Lenders have come to depend upon. It is with this philosophy that we offer the W.P. Carey School of

Business to our clients, associates and friends. It is intended to keep you informed on critical market trends that affect our businesses.

Changes in Transaction Mix For single family homes, the substantial changes in transaction mix between July 2013 and July 2014 are illustrated in the chart below: (Note: ‘Reverted’ homes are excluded from ‘All Sales’.) Below is a similar chart for townhouse /condo properties. We note an uptick in the previously very low level of new construction sales for townhouse/ condos properties.

Supply Our local Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS) had 24,994 active listings on August 1, 2014 across Greater Phoenix including listings under contract seeking backup offers. This is a decline of 3.3% since July 1, but it is 36% more than on August 1, 2013. 11.9% of these active listings already have a signed contract, typically waiting for the lender’s short sale approval or some other contingency before they stop soliciting backup offers. This percentage has fallen from 18.0% over the last 12 months. The number of active single family list

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