Jonathan Burdick

Freddie Mac’s economists have revised many of their earlier estimates for the 2015 U.S. economy. In terms of overall economic growth the revisions are not positive as they see a slowing of “the torrid pace in the third quarter of 2014,” but their new projections are good news for housing, with lower rates and a higher level of mortgage originations. Leonard Kiefer, Freddie Mac’s Deputy Chief Economist, said in February’s edition of the U.S. Economic & Housing Outlook, that t

Just when we thought home sales were shifting toward downsizing we get NAR’s news release that reports sales of existing homes prices above $1M jumped over 16% in October from a year ago, outperformed every other price segment. The next strongest was the $750k-1M range, up over 12%. Sales of homes prices under $100k fell 6%. As the U.S. stock market raises, so do sales of million-dollar homes, a relationship not lost on the nation’s Realtors. “There is little volatility in th

About seven years have passes since the big housing bubble burst and we learned the dangers of loose credit underwriting and over relaxed lending standards. Now, federal regulators are easing away from the stringent guidelines call for by the Dodd-Frank Act of 2010. The underlining purpose was to raise the quality of the “prime” mortgages that are pooled into mortgage backed securities sold to investors. In 2011, under pressure to increase home sales regulators agreed to a de

One of the defining characteristics of the current recovery has been a widespread risk-aversion; in fact this has been the most risk-averse recovery ever. This in turn has led to significant deleveraging and increases the money demand. Households, investors, Wall Street and Main Street are all stockpiling massive amounts of reserves (cash). The asset-to-liabilities (cash-to-loan) ratios of many financial institutions are approaching record levels. This has translated into a t

Home sales in July (single family, townhouse & condo combined) were 4.9% lower than June, with a 4.6% fall in single family and a 7.5% fall in townhouse & condo sales. Total sales were down 18.1% from July 2013 with single family down 18.7% and townhouse & condo sales down 13.3%. The gap between 2013 and 2014 sales closed opened wider than in June because July was an unusually strong month last year. Thanks to the price rises between July 2013 and July 2014, the drop

All-Cash Sales Fall To Six-Year Low The market share of all-cash home sales continues to fall and in June made up the lowest share since the beginning of the financial crisis. CoreLogic said today that cash sales comprised 33 percent of all home sales in June compared to 34.4 percent in May. Prior to the crisis cash transactions generally averaged 25 percent of all home sales. Cash sales hit a peak of 46.2 percent of sales in January 2011. The share was also down on an ann

US Housing, A Global Marketplace The housing market is rapidly becoming an international marketplace with an increasing number of transactions representing global sales. According to the National Association of Realtors®2014 Profile of International Home Buying Activity, for the period April 2013 through March 2014, total international sales are estimated at $92.2B, an increase from the previous period’s level of $68.2B. Favorable exchange rates, affordable home prices and ri

Improvement In The Lending Environment A couple of recent solid reports on mortgages paint a picture of a market that’s healing, with loan access and demand rising. Recent mortgage reports indicate that consumer access to mortgages is opening up and demand is rising. Low interest rates are fostering rising demand in both existing and new homes. However, now the challenge is for available housing inventory to balance with the market demand. The demographic profile of consumers

There's No Doubt, The Economy Is Mending Moody’s Analytics recently released their latest U.S. Macro Forecast, by economist Mark Zandi. Here are two central themes highlighted to support their belief that the economy is truly recovering: Recovery is in high gear - Since it began five years ago, real GDP growth has been tepid, averaging just over 2% per year. The pace now looks closer to 3%. - Behind the pickup is the winding down of fiscal austerity. Government spending cuts

One of the foremost economists covering the housing market is Celia Chen with Economy.com. Over the next three issues we will be covering her latest U.S. Housing Outlook, just released. Here is a summary of her key projections: • As employment conditions improve, pent-up housing demand will be released. • Home sales will remain at 5.5 million this year and accelerate to 6.4 million in 2015. • Credit remains tight, but mortgage lenders are expected to ease in coming months. •